In the great chess game of French politics, tomorrow’s parliamentary elections could set the stage for an unexpected king’s gambit. Emmanuel Macron, fresh from the laurels of re-election, hopes to consolidate his power with a parliamentary majority. Yet, it’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leading an eclectic coalition of the Greens and the left, who’s making the seismic waves.
In an anecdote that captures the fervour of this political moment, I had a group of Mélenchon enthusiasts – aware of my French roots – pitch camp at my Brussels doorstep last night. Their mission? To sway the unswayed for what could be a stunning upset. Should they succeed, Macron, a centrist by temperament, may find himself in a coalition with Mélenchon, a figure who embodies the antithesis of his political ethos.
The potential cohabitation of these two starkly different figures is not just a political curiosity. It’s a study in contrasts: Macron, the champion of liberal economic policies, against Mélenchon, the leftist stalwart with a flair for the dramatic. For Mélenchon, this is the culmination of a long political journey. For Macron, it’s an unpalatable scenario, but not one devoid of strategic advantage.
Consider the economic backdrop: Mélenchon ascends with promises of expansive public spending and progressive economic reforms in a time of inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty. His ambitious agenda – lowering retirement age, freezing prices on necessities – might play well in the gallery but faces the harsh realities of a constrained fiscal space and the specter of economic slowdown. Remember, governments rarely gain popularity when navigating economic headwinds.
Mélenchon, with his penchant for grandiosity, risks overpromising in an environment where delivering might be structurally constrained. This disconnect between populist rhetoric and economic feasibility is not new in French politics, but it’s a tightrope that Mélenchon will have to walk with exceptional skill.
Macron, meanwhile, retains the presidency’s robust control over foreign policy. He also wields the constitutional power to dissolve the National Assembly and call for new elections – a tool used effectively in the past by French presidents to recalibrate the political landscape in their favour.
Entering his second term, Macron’s political capital is not in abundant supply. Even with a parliamentary majority, the economic downturn will likely erode his popularity further. Yet, political history offers a counterintuitive insight: in periods of cohabitation, it’s often the prime minister who bears the brunt of public dissatisfaction with economic conditions. French voters, not known for their patience, may quickly grow disillusioned with Mélenchon’s inability to match rhetoric with results.
In essence, a year or so of cohabitation might be a strategic retreat for Macron, allowing him to regroup and potentially emerge stronger against a background of unfulfilled promises and economic stagnation under Mélenchon’s watch.